April 2019

Now that the three-month treasury yield is greater than the 10-year treasury yield, we have what's known as an inverted yield curve. The question, when does this reliably predict a recession? Hello, my name is Paul Carroll. I'm the CEO and Founder of Efficient Wealth Management, a boutique wealth management firm in South Texas. Now, ominously, an inverted yield curve has predicted every recession back to the late '60s, but there are some caveats to this. First, the prediction has been as far as two years in advance that's not very helpful, and, two, for the prediction to be reliable, it needs to be inverted. The yield curve needs to be inverted at least for 90 days, a full quarter. Now, that clock started a little over two weeks ago which means it won't be till late June if we know if we have a reliable predictor for a 2020...