October 2024

Market Overview Q3 2024: Interest Rates and Market Gains The global stock market enjoyed steady growth in the third quarter, with the MSCI All Country World Index rising by 6.8%—its fourth quarter of positive gains. While markets experienced some ups and downs in August, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks this quarter. Key players included China, India, and Japan, all of which saw higher returns than the U.S1. Interest Rates Drop Globally Central banks in the U.S., the European Union, and the UK lowered interest rates this quarter, providing support to both stock and bond markets. This move by central banks aimed to stimulate economic growth, and investors are keeping an eye on possible further cuts in the future. Record Levels and Mixed Results for Major Tech Companies As we move into the fourth quarter, several global market indexes are close to their all-time highs2. Among the top U.S. tech companies,...

When researchers recently gave professional traders advanced knowledge in what they call the Crystal Ball Challenge, you'd think with that information they'd significantly outperform the markets. Think again. This is a great experiment, and I thought it was very relevant for a short video. The experimenters gave the traders advanced knowledge of a move. A good example would be the recent interest rate cut. They gave them advanced knowledge of what the move was, but they didn't tell them how significant the move would be. Again, in this case, would it be a quarter-point move or a half-point move? Despite the advanced knowledge, the best traders got their bets right just 63% of the time, and they were top-tier investors. The vast majority actually took pretty bad hits on their investments. This is very important and leads to some pretty interesting insights that I always try to make sure my...