Paul J. Carroll, CFP®

The stock market has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent days, wiping out post-election gains and leaving investors wondering: Is this just the beginning? At Avion Wealth, we recognize that market uncertainty can be unsettling. Our role is to guide you through these fluctuations with a disciplined, data-driven approach that prioritizes your long-term financial success. Inflation, Interest Rates, and Economic Uncertainty Recent economic data shows that annual inflation has dropped to 2.8%, which is a positive signal. Lower inflation gives the Federal Reserve more flexibility to reduce interest rates when economic conditions require it. However, it’s important to distinguish between the stock market and the broader economy—while markets react to news in real-time, economic shifts unfold over months and years. At the same time, economic policies such as tariffs and trade restrictions are playing a growing role in shaping market conditions. Research spanning over a century has shown that...

Yesterday, the S&P 500 experienced its worst sell-off of 2025, falling nearly 2%. This marks a 5% decline since its February 19th high. The question now is—was this a pivotal moment for the markets, or just another bump in the road? At Avion Wealth, we believe in looking at the bigger picture. Let’s break down the fundamentals behind this recent market volatility. Key Market Drivers Economic Headwinds Several macroeconomic factors are shaping the current market landscape: Manufacturing Slowdown: U.S. manufacturing is stalling, indicating potential economic weakness. Rising Prices: Inflation is hovering around 3%, keeping pressure on consumers and businesses. Tariff Uncertainty: Tariffs on Canada and Mexico appear to be moving forward, adding friction to trade. For historical context, the U.S. economy thrives on free trade. Our 50-state free-trade zone has fueled the world’s most powerful economy. NAFTA further strengthened this by integrating Canada’s resources and Mexico’s labor, allowing the U.S....

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau: Necessary Watchdog or Regulatory Burden? Elon Musk is making headlines again, this time for his efforts to curtail the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), the regulatory watchdog that oversees consumer financial practices. With Musk's X platform partnering with Visa, this raises an important question: Is the CFPB just unnecessary bureaucracy, or does it serve a vital role in protecting consumers? At Avion Wealth, we focus on helping our clients navigate complex financial landscapes. Today, we’re taking a broader look at the role of regulation in financial markets—where it helps, where it hurts, and what happens when powerful interests try to reshape it. The CFPB: A History of Consumer Protection The CFPB was created in 2010 under the Dodd-Frank Act, a response to the egregious financial misconduct that contributed to the Great Recession. If you’re unfamiliar with just how bad things got, look up what Wells...

A Major Shift in the Financial World: The New York Stock Exchange Expands to Texas The financial world may be on the brink of a significant shift. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) is expanding its presence into Texas, a move that could reshape how businesses raise capital and trade stocks. But what does this mean for investors and the broader financial landscape? A Historic Move for the NYSE The New York Stock Exchange, established in 1792, has long been the heartbeat of global finance. Wall Street, named for the literal wall that once marked New York City's perimeter, became synonymous with market power and capital formation. For centuries, the NYSE has dominated financial markets, attracting the world's largest companies and investors. Now, for the first time in its history, the NYSE is setting its sights beyond New York, seeking new opportunities in a business-friendly state—Texas. Why Texas? Several factors...

Lessons in Wealth and Success: Paul Carroll’s Journey to Building Avion Wealth Success is rarely a straight line. For Paul Carroll, CEO and Founder of Avion Wealth, it was a journey of risk, resilience, and strategic thinking. In a recent interview with Adam Sarhan on the Smart Money Circle podcast, Paul shared his story—from arriving in the U.S. as a teenager with only $200 and a toothbrush to managing approximately $850 million in assets today. Along the way, he learned critical lessons about wealth management, risk mitigation, and the importance of making strategic decisions. A Journey Rooted in Resilience Paul’s path was anything but conventional. Born in Dublin and raised in England, he came to the U.S. at 17 with little more than ambition. When he ran out of financial runway, he enlisted in the U.S. Air Force, where he earned a business degree. He then pursued a master’s in...

Navigating the Impact of New Tariffs on Your Investments Over the weekend, a significant shift in trade policy took place with the announcement of new tariffs. As an investor, you may be wondering—how will this affect your portfolio? Let’s break it down. Breaking Down the Tariffs The newly announced tariffs include: A 25% levy on imports from Mexico and Canada (with the exception of Canadian oil, which faces a 10% tariff). A 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Markets reacted swiftly. By Monday morning, the S&P 500 fell 1.4%, and the NASDAQ dropped 1.8% before stabilizing. While investors digest the implications, it’s clear that these tariffs will have broad economic repercussions. Economic Impact: What to Expect 1. Higher Consumer Prices One of the most immediate effects of tariffs is a rise in prices. The auto industry expects that the cost of a U.S.-manufactured car will increase by $3,000, as many components...

The TikTok Tipping Point Paul briefly discusses the issues and impact of the divest-or-ban law ruling by the Supreme Court. TikTok, the social media giant with a massive 170 million users in the United States, is facing a high-stakes deadline. ByteDance, its parent company, has been ordered to divest itself of TikTok by January 19, or the platform will be shut down. This ruling has been upheld by the Supreme Court and could have far-reaching implications not just for TikTok, but for the entire social media landscape—and your investments. There’s a lot at stake, both from a national security perspective and an economic one. But what does it all mean for you? The Battle Over TikTok: A Free Speech and Ownership Debate The core issue in this legal drama revolves around whether TikTok's ownership by a Chinese company poses a national security risk due to potential covert manipulation of users...

Will Rising Bond Yields Break the Market's Back? Paul Carroll discusses the reasons for rising long bond yields despite the Fed’s rate cuts and how that may impact the economy and markets. Navigating the New Normal: Prolonged High Interest Rates and Their Impact on Your Portfolio In today’s evolving financial landscape, investors face a new reality of prolonged high interest rates. While historically not unprecedented, these rates are significantly higher than we've seen in recent decades, creating a "new normal" that reshapes the way we approach investments. Let’s dive into the factors driving this shift and explore how it impacts your portfolio. The Rise of Long-Term Rates: What’s Driving the Trend? Although the Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes and may even implement periodic cuts, long-term rates tell a different story. Ten-year Treasuries are flirting with 5%, and long bonds have surpassed that threshold. Here’s why: A Strong Economy: The...

What you need to know The Corporate Transparency Act is an anti-money laundering act, and comes with something called the Beneficial Ownership Information Reporting Requirement that had a January 1st, 2025 deadline. Though this law was a long time coming, it probably will stand in the end, at least with some kind of modification. What happened was that a federal judge in Texas initially ruled this law as possibly unconstitutional and the enforcement needed to be stalled... Reasonable enough. Then, this Monday, a higher court stated, "No, the injunction is overturned. The January 1st deadline sticks." The Treasury then came back and said, "All right, January 1st isn't reasonable for people who've waited. We're going to push the deadline back to January 13th." Well, then, the New Orleans Fifth U.S. Court Circuit reinstated the injunction! There is no way to tell what's going to happen next. We cannot say when...

If you felt the shockwaves in the market yesterday, you're certainly not alone. What happened and how does this affect you? Let's get some context. Yesterday, markets dropped about 3%, large cap US growth stocks as much as 4%. That's a pretty big hit for one day. What are the factors behind that? Primarily, the Fed indicated that it will only cut rates maybe twice in 2025. In fact, the estimate is maybe an aggregate drop of a third of a percent between the two cuts. That is next to nothing. Up until yesterday, markets in 2024 were up as much as 28%. Those markets are highly concentrated and very sensitive to any sort of negative news. So why did the Fed react the way it did? The thing to understand with the Fed is that it has a dual mandate. It's rather unusual in the world. Most Federal Reserve...