The TikTok Tipping Point Paul briefly discusses the issues and impact of the divest-or-ban law ruling by the Supreme Court. TikTok, the social media giant with a massive 170 million users in the United States, is facing a high-stakes deadline. ByteDance, its parent company, has been ordered to divest itself of TikTok by January 19, or the platform will be shut down. This ruling has been upheld by the Supreme Court and could have far-reaching implications not just for TikTok, but for the entire social media landscape—and your investments. There’s a lot at stake, both from a national security perspective and an economic one. But what does it all mean for you? The Battle Over TikTok: A Free Speech and Ownership Debate The core issue in this legal drama revolves around whether TikTok's ownership by a Chinese company poses a national security risk due to potential covert manipulation of users...

Will Rising Bond Yields Break the Market's Back? Paul Carroll discusses the reasons for rising long bond yields despite the Fed’s rate cuts and how that may impact the economy and markets. Navigating the New Normal: Prolonged High Interest Rates and Their Impact on Your Portfolio In today’s evolving financial landscape, investors face a new reality of prolonged high interest rates. While historically not unprecedented, these rates are significantly higher than we've seen in recent decades, creating a "new normal" that reshapes the way we approach investments. Let’s dive into the factors driving this shift and explore how it impacts your portfolio. The Rise of Long-Term Rates: What’s Driving the Trend? Although the Federal Reserve has paused rate hikes and may even implement periodic cuts, long-term rates tell a different story. Ten-year Treasuries are flirting with 5%, and long bonds have surpassed that threshold. Here’s why: A Strong Economy: The...

What you need to know The Corporate Transparency Act is an anti-money laundering act, and comes with something called the Beneficial Ownership Information Reporting Requirement that had a January 1st, 2025 deadline. Though this law was a long time coming, it probably will stand in the end, at least with some kind of modification. What happened was that a federal judge in Texas initially ruled this law as possibly unconstitutional and the enforcement needed to be stalled... Reasonable enough. Then, this Monday, a higher court stated, "No, the injunction is overturned. The January 1st deadline sticks." The Treasury then came back and said, "All right, January 1st isn't reasonable for people who've waited. We're going to push the deadline back to January 13th." Well, then, the New Orleans Fifth U.S. Court Circuit reinstated the injunction! There is no way to tell what's going to happen next. We cannot say when...

If you felt the shockwaves in the market yesterday, you're certainly not alone. What happened and how does this affect you? Let's get some context. Yesterday, markets dropped about 3%, large cap US growth stocks as much as 4%. That's a pretty big hit for one day. What are the factors behind that? Primarily, the Fed indicated that it will only cut rates maybe twice in 2025. In fact, the estimate is maybe an aggregate drop of a third of a percent between the two cuts. That is next to nothing. Up until yesterday, markets in 2024 were up as much as 28%. Those markets are highly concentrated and very sensitive to any sort of negative news. So why did the Fed react the way it did? The thing to understand with the Fed is that it has a dual mandate. It's rather unusual in the world. Most Federal Reserve...

  A recent ruling by the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Texas has significant implications for the Corporate Transparency Act (CTA) and its beneficial ownership information reporting requirements. How does this impact investors who were required to report by the end of the year? On December 3, 2024, Judge Amos Mazzant issued a nationwide preliminary injunction halting the enforcement of the Corporate Transparency Act. The court determined that the CTA likely exceeds constitutional boundaries by infringing on states' rights under the 10th Amendment. The key word here is "likely". This is not the final word on the matter. The injunction temporarily suspends the requirement for businesses to report beneficial ownership information to the Treasury, which had a deadline of January 1, 2025. However, until appeals are resolved, that deadline will be delayed. In the meantime, entities are not obligated to comply with the CTA's reporting requirements. The...

Welcome to the second of our two-part series on buying a car. In part one, we covered purchasing a car, briefly touched on leasing, and some of the pitfalls that can come with it. In part two, we’ll discuss some strategies and exceptions that can make leasing worthwhile. Generally speaking, leasing a car in Texas is not a great idea. Here’s why: In Texas, you pay a 6.25% sales tax on the full value of the car. Unlike some states, you don’t pay local sales tax—only the 6.25%. But the problem lies in how this tax is applied. In most states, sales tax is calculated based on the value of the car during the lease term, not the full value of the car. For example, if you lease a car for three years, you’re taxed only on the difference between the car’s initial value and its residual value (the estimated...

I’m frequently invited to share my insights and experiences when it comes to buying cars, both new and used. Buying a car can be one of the largest purchases you'll ever make—often second only to buying a house. The process is part art, part science. Always start by knowing exactly what you want. If you don’t know what you want, don’t proceed further. Here’s why: as soon as you walk into a dealership and start talking to a salesperson, you’ve effectively cut yourself off from the internet sales process, which is almost always the better option. So, know what you want. Once you do, go check out that car, preferably at a dealership you’re confident you won’t use. The next question is whether you’re going to trade in your car. You may want to keep your current car for another purpose, but if you’re trading it in, you need to...

We are thrilled to announce that Avion Wealth has been honored with the title of “The Best Financial Planner in The Woodlands” by Living Magazine for 2024. This award is a testament to our unwavering dedication to providing high-net-worth clients with tailored wealth management solutions and the attentive, detail-driven service they deserve. A Legacy of Trust and Excellence Since our founding, Avion Wealth has proudly served The Woodlands community, focusing on exceptional financial planning, investment consulting, and wealth management services. We are deeply committed to helping our clients achieve financial confidence by addressing every detail of their financial needs, from risk management to wealth transfer strategies. Recognition by Our Valued Clients This accolade is particularly meaningful because it reflects the trust and confidence our clients place in us. We are grateful to our clients and the local community for their continued support, and we are more committed than ever to...

Today is Friday, November the first, and yesterday's market selloff was almost 2%. Is this a precursor of the election that's coming next week? Thursday's tech stock selloff wiped out all of October's gains. In fact, it's the worst selloff in over two months, but it's hardly surprising to see a tech selloff given tech's nosebleed-altitude valuations. But so much of these nosebleed valuations are a result of AI, and AI is still very much an unknown quantity, especially in terms of how you monetize it. The thing to understand about markets, and we've talked about this before, is that they're very much "expectations machines" and valuations hold steady if the expectations are met. So even if it's a good outcome, if it's not as good as anticipated, it will have a negative impact on the market. The opposite is also true if expectations are negative, even if it's less...

Market Overview Q3 2024: Interest Rates and Market Gains The global stock market enjoyed steady growth in the third quarter, with the MSCI All Country World Index rising by 6.8%—its fourth quarter of positive gains. While markets experienced some ups and downs in August, international stocks outperformed U.S. stocks this quarter. Key players included China, India, and Japan, all of which saw higher returns than the U.S1. Interest Rates Drop Globally Central banks in the U.S., the European Union, and the UK lowered interest rates this quarter, providing support to both stock and bond markets. This move by central banks aimed to stimulate economic growth, and investors are keeping an eye on possible further cuts in the future. Record Levels and Mixed Results for Major Tech Companies As we move into the fourth quarter, several global market indexes are close to their all-time highs2. Among the top U.S. tech companies,...