UAL Voluntary Enhanced Leave Bid

At the beginning of the week, United Airlines offered the pilots voluntary extended leave. What does this mean to you? Especially if you're retiring soon. If you're not retiring, all this is saying is "Don't come to work and we'll pay you 50 hours in May, or if you want to leave for a longer period of time, 40 hours a month." Frankly, if you've got a commute, you don't like being around sick people - you just don't want to come to work -that's not a bad deal. Well, what if you're retiring? Really, the retirement decision is one about the pension; the lump sum. Let me be clear. It is our opinion at Avion Wealth that the annuity is completely safe. Not only is the pension plan relatively well-funded, but the PBGC coverage for the annuities that were frozen about a decade ago, or more now, is more...
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COVID-19 & Market Update

Today, I want to talk about the virus update, the economic stimulus package, how it's affecting markets and what to expect next. Let's talk about what we know first on the virus - you can all read, so I'll be brief. So what do we know? The COVID-19 is apparently showing all signs of being seasonal as it warms up, transmission rates slow. It doesn't mean it's going to go away. Just means we're going to hopefully get more time for the hospitals to build up their beds, their inventory of equipment, their respirators. New York City of course is getting hammered, and it's right in that critical weather temperature band of locations that are most susceptible to this. We're seeing that the fatality average rate is still less than 1% where there's good health care, and it's also age and health dependent. For growth rate the United States is...
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Market Drop & Avion’s Coronavirus Business Continuity Plan

Good morning. What a Monday! The market is down 7%. Oil prices have collapsed to $34, and Goldman's actually afraid it'll hit $20. We have Coronavirus. We're going to talk today about all these. Most important - what's our strategy to protect our clients from these fires? We have two kinds of clients who are reacting to what is essentially a real capitulation within the market. We've got the scared clients, and to them I would say we plan for this. This is why we've been so conservative. No one knew when a market correction would come, but we knew for over 18 months that the markets were rich. So we've planned for this. We're going to get through it. The hungry clients are actually the more interesting group, and for those the issue is when do we get in. When do we buy cheap. And there's no right answer....
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Let’s Play “Catch a Falling Knife”

The market's down maybe 10% this week. Let's play "Catch a Falling Knife." So it looks like we're entering official bear market territory, especially when we refer to the peak in early February. We've been here before. We've seen this before and always, it appears obvious with hindsight. But let's do a quick recap of what we know. We know there's a Coronavirus and we know it's pretty likely going to hit all corners of the Earth. We know there are a lot of underreported cases and the most likely fatality rate, especially in Western nations, is probably at or below half a percent. That's significant, but the regular flu is one 10th of a percent. Disproportionately it's affecting males over 65. Interestingly, it's not affecting children that much. I mean, from a very callous point of view - and trust me, this is not where my heart is -...
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What the SECURE Act Means for Your Retirement

On December 20th, 2019, the Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act became law. As the name implies, this law intends to make it easier for Americans to save for retirement. Though this may sound simple enough, as with most laws, the reality is far more complex. The SECURE Act includes changes that affect everyone from beneficiaries of retirement accounts to those with student loans, but the SECURE Act is most likely to affect those either approaching retirement or recently retired. Your unique financial situation will dictate exactly how the SECURE Act will impact you and your retirement plan, but there are a few key changes that everyone should take note of when planning for retirement. To learn more, download the PDF of the article below:       What the SECURE Act Means for Your Retirement

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Coronavirus Strikes Italy – Markets Have the Flu

So now that the Coronoavirus has found its way to Italy, South Korea - unsurprisingly, the U S markets - the global markets have come down with a case of the flu. I'm not going to spend too much time on the topic other than to say, as I've said before, that the history of these pandemics is that the market reacts in the short-term. Then rebalances itself for long-term expectations, which means a recovery. And of all the viruses and pandemics out there, the one that has the greatest potential for short-term disruption, compared with almost no potential for long-term disruption, is the Coronavirus. The victims of the Coronavirus are disproportionately people who are not of working age. One: that is not to downplay the tragedy, the severity and the potential for fear. It is a real potential for short-term disaster, for want of a better word, with small...
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How Will Coronavirus Impact Your Portfolio?

  It's been an interesting week. We've got the Kansas City Chiefs winning the Super Bowl. I don't know what to say about the debacle in Iowa, but really what's on everyone's mind is how will a Coronavirus affect stock markets and your investment portfolio? Now there are precedents, so we can talk about this. The SARS virus, there's Avian Flu and there's Ebola. What are the threats? Why would markets be so upset? Well, the biggest threat we're concerned about is these travel bans - especially in China. One of the things that's been learned with Ebola in Africa is the stricter the travel ban, the harder people will work to actually violate it. The other threat is what does it do to economic consumption and global GDP markets? We do know from history that travel bans rarely work.   We also know from history that this type of...
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Tax Season Tips And Traps

  January means tax time is just around the corner. Here's a couple of pointers that may help mitigate the cost and difficulty of preparing your taxes this year. We've got a lot of different clients with a lot of different desires when it comes to how best to file their taxes. Some clients, every single document, as soon as they get it, they send it to their CPA. Something to keep in mind is when the CPA opens up that envelope, it's going to hack the clock and probably most CPAs have a minimum of 15 minutes, so you can start seeing where we're going here. Bundle the documents. You may send one bundle late January, another bundle late February, and another bundle late March. But bundle the documents because the less envelopes that CPA opens, the less it's going cost you.   The second challenge we have is...
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New Year, New Commitment

It's the end of 2019. Efficient Wealth Management is really proud to announce that we have reached our $100,000 commitment. That's $100,000 of giving to local and other needy causes. For 2020, we want a new commitment, a great new goal to celebrate the new name, Avion Wealth, and the new look. At Avion Wealth in 2020, we've decided our giving commitment is going to be bumped to $202,000. We'd like to celebrate the new year with a new commitment - the $202,000 commitment. We wish you a fantastic new year in 2020. Of course, we always wish you the best of investing success.
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Negative Duration and Your Bond Portfolio

What is negative duration when talking about bonds, and why can that be a good thing? In a fantastic year of rallying asset classes, there's always going to be a negative standout. In 2019, International Bonds was that negative standout. We must remember that though hindsight is 20/20, foresight is not. The challenge when dealing with the problem is that typically last year's laggard holding is next year's top performer, or close to it. You step off the tracks and you run the risk of getting mowed down by a train coming in the other direction. Before we get into the perfect storm that was 2019, let's talk about negative duration briefly. Many of you know from previous videos that duration is inversely related to interest rates. That means in English, when interest rates go up X percent, the value of the bond falls Y percent and vice versa. Interest...
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