When the CEO of a major airline goes on Bloomberg Television and attaches a specific percentage to an expected fare increase, it is worth examining carefully. Not every earnings comment warrants a response. This one may.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby recently warned that airfares may need to rise approximately 20% in response to elevated fuel costs. The airline has already acted: it has cut 5% of its capacity, eliminating routes that are no longer financially viable at current oil prices. Kirby cited an internal fuel cost projection of roughly $11 billion and put a potential oil price of $175 per barrel on the table for a stress scenario, with prices likely remaining above $100 through the end of next year.
At Avion Wealth, we work with business owners, executives, and high-earning professionals whose travel calendars carry real financial weight. When a structural shift in travel costs appears likely, that warrants a planning conversation. The following is a framework worth considering.
The Context Behind the Warning
One piece of data that adds dimension to this discussion: despite years of broader inflation, airfares in 2025 were running approximately 2% below where they stood in 2019. The 15 to 20% increase Kirby is projecting would close roughly half to 60% of that gap. In other words, fares have had significant room to rise for some time. The fuel environment may be what finally moves them.
Kirby described the potential worst case as a stress event for the industry, but notably not a repeat of the COVID disruption. The situation is serious and data-supported. It is not a panic-level forecast.
A Two-Sided Strategy Worth Understanding
For those with meaningful upcoming travel, the case for booking in the near term is relatively direct. If fares rise as projected, locking in a ticket at today’s price represents a concrete saving. Across a full year of business or family travel, that may not be a trivial figure.
The more nuanced side of this analysis involves the downside scenario. Economic conditions remain genuinely uncertain. If demand softens, a recession materializes, or oil prices retreat, fares could fall rather than rise. So the question worth asking is not only whether to book now, but what the exposure looks like if prices move in the other direction.
For standard economy fares and above, the major U.S. carriers have largely eliminated cancellation fees. United, American, Delta, and JetBlue all allow a non-basic-economy ticket to be cancelled in exchange for a full future flight credit, with no deduction. What this means in practice: if fares subsequently decline, a traveler may cancel the existing booking, receive a credit for the amount paid, and rebook the same trip at the lower fare. The credit effectively covers the difference. This flexibility is real. Most travelers are not aware they have it.
Where This Strategy Has Edges
Precision matters here. A few considerations may affect how this applies to your situation:
- Credits are carrier-specific. A United credit cannot be applied to a Delta booking. If your travel needs shift to a different airline, the credit does not transfer.
- Credits typically expire within one year of issuance. If your planned travel extends beyond that window, an unused credit may lapse.
- The cancellation must occur before departure. This flexibility is not available after the flight has been taken.
- Book directly through the airline. Third-party platforms can introduce complications in the credit and cancellation process. Booking directly generally provides the most straightforward access to these policies.
- Review your credit card benefits. Several premium travel cards include trip cancellation protection as a built-in benefit. If the ticket was purchased on one of those cards, that coverage may offer an additional layer of protection beyond what the airline provides.
- Set up frequent flyer accounts for every traveler in your family, including children. Credits tied to a MileagePlus account — or the equivalent — are visible, trackable, and straightforward to apply at rebooking. Without an account, credits can be difficult to locate and redeem. Account setup is free.
Connecting This to the Broader Picture
This is not a guaranteed outcome. What Kirby is describing may or may not materialize on the timeline he has outlined, and economic variables will continue to shift. But specific, data-backed projections from a major airline operator are not background noise. They represent a planning signal worth taking seriously.
This topic sits at the intersection of two disciplines that do not often appear in the same conversation: aviation economics and personal financial planning. For business owners and executives who travel frequently, the overlap between those two areas may be more significant than it appears on the surface.
For those evaluating their broader financial strategy, Avion Wealth offers a complimentary second opinion service designed to examine whether your current plan is as well-positioned as it could be. There is no obligation, and no agenda beyond the conversation.
To your success,
The Avion Wealth Team
Resources
United Airlines warns airfares could jump 20% as oil prices continue to surge
Travel expert suggests booking airfare now as airline CEO warns prices will keep rising