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Is the Economy Headed For A Hard Landing?

By Paul J. Carroll, CFP®October 13, 2023February 6th, 2024Videos

 

The term “soft landings” has been echoing frequently in recent news. However, the irony lies in the fact that the more we hear about it, the less likely it seems we’ll experience one. Today, I aim to shed light on some of the pressing market concerns and their potential implications.

Economic Indicators

The financial landscape is undergoing a significant shift with the end of what many term as “free money.” Interest rates are on an upward trajectory, signaling the culmination of an era characterized by easy money. While I believe this transition might be beneficial in the long run, its immediate repercussions can be unsettling for many. Homeowners might witness a dip in their property values, and the process of securing mortgages could become more stringent.

Several economic indicators are currently under the spotlight, warranting our attention. Rising interest rates, for instance, are incrementally increasing costs for corporate America, acting much like a de facto tax. This rise is also influencing stock valuations. The yield gap, which represents the difference between the interest offered by a 10-year bond and a stock’s yield, is noticeably narrowing. Another economic facet to consider is the strength of the US dollar. While a robust dollar is typically viewed as a positive sign, its current strength is putting a strain on exporters. This is because a strong dollar makes imports cheaper while simultaneously making exports pricier for international buyers.

The issue of government debt is another significant concern. Currently pegged at 7% of GDP, the level of government spending seems to be on an unsustainable trajectory. To address this burgeoning deficit, it’s evident that spending needs to be curtailed. However, that alone might not suffice. It’s highly probable that taxes will also see a rise in the near future.

The labor market too isn’t devoid of challenges. The ongoing vocal strike by the United Auto Workers serves as a testament to the challenges some companies are facing, especially after granting significant pay raises. The automotive industry, in particular, is at an inflection point with the rise of electric vehicles. These vehicles, given their design and mechanism, require fewer man-hours for production compared to their traditional counterparts.

In conclusion, while the financial horizon might seem clouded with challenges, it’s essential to adopt a strategic approach to wealth management. At Avion Wealth, our focus isn’t just on the return on investment but more importantly on the return of investment. We remain committed to diversifying and strategizing in ways that safeguard our clients’ wealth, ensuring their financial success.

 

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Founder & CEO at Avion Wealth

Paul is the founder and CEO of Avion Wealth, LLC. He leads a team of wealth managers in building and executing financial plans for high net worth individuals and families. Contact Avion Wealth to speak with a financial advisor.