Paul J. Carroll, CFP®

Last week, we enjoyed a great market rally. We enjoyed it, that is, if you weren't timing the market and afraid because of the previous downturn. Friday's hiring report was below expectations, and that's great news. Expectations were 180,000. It actually came in at 150,000 and for perspective, September was a hair under 300,000. What does that mean? That means the economy is beginning to lose steam. After years of being overheated, that's not a bad thing because the slowing economy gives the Fed room to put an end to the rate hikes. Rising interest rates hurt asset values. They hurt home values, they hurt mortgages, they hurt stocks, they even hurt bonds. Sure enough, last week, the S&P rose almost 6%. It's the strongest rally since November 2022. Moreover, yields on various bond durations dropped a little bit. Fortunately, we've already been moving out on the yield curve, so...

On Friday, the S&P had slid 10% from its high. What does that mean for you and your portfolio? On July 31st, the market was at 4,589. On Friday, it was 4,117. Today* it's actually bounced back a little bit. Whenever the market drops 10%, we seem to forget the fundamentals. Now is a good time to discuss what this in fact means. Let's start from a historical perspective. When we build an asset allocation, it is designed to stand the test of time. It is not designed to identify when the market is going to move. We'll talk about later why that's such a difficult challenge. It's always important to acknowledge the emotional component. When we make decisions based on market moves, we have now migrated from long-term investing to emotional investing. We need to keep in mind we have a diversified portfolio and not all asset classes are...

Recently, the Social Security Administration recalculated the benefit for Social Security and Social Security supplemental income recipients in 2024. Social Security Adjustment for Inflation for 2024 For 71 million people, there'll be an average 3.2% increase in their Social Security benefit in 2024. On average, that'll be $50 a month. But if you are a higher earner during your working years, that could easily exceed $100. COLA notices are probably going to go out from the administration in December. On the other hand, the maximum earning, subject to the Social Security tax, is going to increase next year to $168,600. Fortunately, the tax rates will remain the same. So that's a mixed bag. Really, it's the same as this year, adjusted for inflation. Clearly, whether you're getting a benefit or paying the tax, these are inflation adjustments in real dollars. There's no change. However, what is important is to understand...

If you're alive, if you've got a pulse, read the news, or looked at the credit card statement - you know that interest rates have come up. Long-term rates are up, short-term rates are up. This has caused all sorts of distress and it's interesting. Why? These interest rates today historically are fantastic and I would argue that they're healthy in the long run. Why would I make the case that interest rates as they are today are a good thing?  Well, we really have to get down to fundamentals. I'm going to try to avoid too much theory here, but interest rates are the price of money. In the market economy, price signals are crucial to the allocation of scarce resources. In this case, the price signal is interest rate, and the scarce resource is money. Now, prior to this hugely inflationary period, there was something running around the...

  Last week I came back from a great vacation to Greece, and of course, I always leave with a reading list. And in that list was an interesting book called The Missing Billionaires by Victor Haghani. I learned some very interesting lessons that I want to share with you. I read prolifically, and I've gotten to the point now, I can get into the beginning of a book and decide quickly that there is no more intel for me. But Victor Haghani, who I'd never heard of, actually possesses quite the resume. He's a superstar trader with enormous success and also some pretty big failures. He was at Long-Term Capital Management when they had their spectacular wipe out in 1998, where they wiped out something like 90% of the value of the fund overnight. So Victor learned a few things, and I found it just a fascinating lesson. The...

The term "soft landings" has been echoing frequently in recent news. However, the irony lies in the fact that the more we hear about it, the less likely it seems we'll experience one. Today, I aim to shed light on some of the pressing market concerns and their potential implications. Economic Indicators The financial landscape is undergoing a significant shift with the end of what many term as "free money." Interest rates are on an upward trajectory, signaling the culmination of an era characterized by easy money. While I believe this transition might be beneficial in the long run, its immediate repercussions can be unsettling for many. Homeowners might witness a dip in their property values, and the process of securing mortgages could become more stringent. Several economic indicators are currently under the spotlight, warranting our attention. Rising interest rates, for instance, are incrementally increasing costs for corporate America, acting...

We call September storm season here at Avion. I'm going to tell you why. The September Effect For at least 100 years now, September's been the worst month of the year for the market. Since 1928, it's been down 52 times. In fact, its ratio of down years to up years is 60/40. 60% of the time you'll lose money in September. There's even a term for this. It's called the "September Effect". So, this year we had a couple of  hidden factors. Through August, we had this AI driving rally. Any stock with AI related to it really did well. There's been a bit of a pullback, and towards the end of September, it really began to sink in that the era of free money is over. Globally, stocks pulled back a little bit as a result of that realization. That could be fairly permanent. The good news though...

Like many people, I have been involved in a number of renovation projects in the last three or four years. And I have paid tuition like never before. So the purpose of this video is to maybe help you pay a little less tuition than I did. I read a fascinating article in the Financial Times that really talked about how renovation projects are becoming a disaster for people. It would've been nice to read this article three or four years ago. But what we're seeing both with our clients, ad hoc conversation with others, and even personal experiences within our office is the world has changed. It used to be if you couldn't afford it the way it is, buy what you can afford, fix it up. That could be a house, a plane, a classic car, a boat. But the rules of the game are changing. Labor is...

If you’re a business owner who is contemplating selling your business, you can learn valuable tips and avoidable traps in this interview with our founder and CEO Paul Carroll who was a guest on the Failing to Success podcast. In this discussion, you’ll hear how Paul’s prior experience, both in aviation and the financial sector, sparked his desire to build his own wealth management firm dedicated to helping successful growth-minded business leaders. Paul shares insights about how to maximize the value of your business that he’s learned hands-on from more than two decades of leading Avion Wealth and through serving as a wealth manager advising business owners on their exit strategies. He reveals specific tips on how to treat personal expenses, what it means to have "clean books," and why it may make sense to pay more taxes now for a bigger payout later. Paul walks through real life examples...

The debt ceiling fiasco is behind us, but are we facing a debt Armageddon? To me it was fairly clear that it was unlikely the Republicans would take this too far, because previously when they did that, it hurt them at the elections. However, they were able to squeeze an effect of 12-month freeze in the growth of spending. But why not more? Why is this such a difficult problem? As a quick summary, there are three types of spending. There's mandatory spending, discretionary spending, and interest on the debt. You could add a fourth type, and we call that tax code spending. Mandatory spending is two-thirds of the budget. It is written in the law. Social security, Medicare, Medicaid, it's untouchable. Discretionary spending is 23%. One half of that goes to the military, and these are uncertain times. The remaining that's discretionary is 11% of the budget. It's not...